Gary Moran's Kingston Realty Team JANUARY 2009 Newsletter

Hi everyone,

Happy New Year to all!  Another year has flown by.

2008 IN REVIEW.

Number of transactions - 2008 saw a 6.8% reduction in the number of residential properties sold (on the MLS system) when compared to 2007 with a total of residential sales for 2008 at 3538 compared to 3797 for 2007.  Remember, this includes only residential properties listed on the MLS system - in Kingston, many new homes are listed, but certainly not all.  When last year's numbers are compared to the average of the past three years, transactions were down 4.7%.  I looked at a few other markets for comparison purposes to gauge how Kingston's market was doing.  The figures below compare 2008 sales with 2007.

London Ontario down 10.9%                                      Ottawa Ontario down 5.7%.

Toronto Ontario down 20.0%.                                     Edmonton Alberta down 15.5%

I could add many more locations, but the picture here is that we are in pretty good shape, also you'll hear reports from "various" sources of dramatic declines in sales, well, I got these numbers from the various real estate board internet sites, so I'm reasonably confident that the numbers are accurate.  I should also say that some specific areas within the board's jurisdiction may have much different numbers.

Inventory - Inventory levels remain high with 1093 active listings on the market as of the end of December compared to 865 last year, that's about 26.4% higher.  Inventory levels remained high pretty much all through 2008. If you remember inventory levels in 2007 were also substantially higher than previous years.

Prices - Keeping in line with the year, two storey homes led the increase at 6.4% increase, with bungalows and condo prices increasing by 4.1% and 4.2% respectively.  The total dollar value of Multiple Listing Services residential sales in the Kingston board for 2008 was $833.4 million.

In some other market areas, average prices between 2007 and 2008 varied:

London Ontario down 10.9%                                      Edmonton Alberta down 5.7%

Toronto Ontario up 0.8%                                            Hamilton Ontario up 6.3%

Ottawa Ontario up 6.3%

According to the Canadian Real Estate Board, the average price of a home in Canada in 2008 was $280,880.  Here in the Kingston board area, I calculate the average price to be $235,564 or 16% below the national average.

I looked back at my January 2008 predictions and one of the things I said was "we would not see the doom and gloom that they are experiencing in the US market." - and I think I was right there.  I had suggested the number of transactions at 3700 to 3800 so I was a little high on that with 3538 being the final number.  My suggestion about modest price increases proved to be correct.

OUTLOOK FOR 2009

We still have low mortgage rates, although overall in Ontario (and Canada) our economy is certainly not as strong as it was.  Manufacturing has certainly taken a beating.  However, for all of the reasons I have spoken of in many newsletters past, I feel our real estate market in Kingston is fortunate. An article in today's Whig Standard said that according to Statistics Canada, Kingston's job market jumped by 3,700 full and part time jobs during 2008 with an employment growth rate in Kingston at 4.8% way ahead of the 0.6% national average.  All kinds of good news keeps coming with Startech on a hiring spree and the announcement that 'Zoom' airlines will have its new head office in Kingston. I foresee sales numbers in the 3300 to 3500 range next year with price increases around 3%.

No it won't be a record year I am sure, but I believe we will have a reasonably solid and balanced market.  I also believe we will be seeing a fairly large increase in sales starting in the spring of 2010 to relieve some of the pent-up demand.  For first time and move-up buyers alike, now is likely a great time to buy during this little blip in the market while interest rates remain extremely low and before the next wave of demand pushes prices higher.

Next month I'll get back to our use of technology for both selling and buying homes.  We believe, here at the Kingston Realty Team that we are way ahead of most of the real estate community in the use of technology for the benefit of our clients.

Once again, we would like to thank everyone for your testimonials, your referrals and for your continued support.  We wish everyone a healthy happy and prosperous 2009.

Have a Great Day!

Regards,

Gary Moran, M.Sc.

KingstonRealtyTeam

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