Gary Moran's Kingston Realty Team APRIL Newsletter
Hi everyone,
Spring has arrived, the birds are back, and as I write this it is a sunny clear beautiful day with the temperature of 29ºC (84ºF).
Before I get into this month's statistics for our board area I would like to quote from Ann Bosley, president of the Canadian Real Estate Board, who said "The statistics show the future of the residential real estate market in Canada is solid." The Canadian Real Estate Board's chief economist Gregory Klump said "MLS® sales activity will stay strong and reach the second-highest level on record this year. Residential MLS® prices are also expected to continue rising."
Well, what does the first three months look like here in the Kingston market? The number of transactions is down 13.4% over the past three year average and down 16.7% from last year's record pace. The question is why. Well, the snow, snow and more snow certainly had an effect - the next two months will give us a better picture of how much the snow contributed.
STATISTICS |
Entire Board Area (West Napanee/Bath to East Gananoque) |
| | Jan to Mar | Jan to Mar | Jan to Mar | Jan to Mar | Active Listings | Active Listings |
| | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 31-Mar-07 | 31-Mar-08 |
| | | | | | | |
2-Storey | # Units Sold | 226 | 241 | 284 | 221 | 491 | 659 |
| Average Price | $222,043 | $249,844 | $239,098 | $250,921 | | |
| | | | | | | |
Bungalow | # Units Sold | 340 | 289 | 300 | 272 | 643 | 701 |
| Average Price | $197,444 | $193,143 | $206,500 | $227,748 | | |
| | | | | | | |
Other | # Units Sold | 123 | 128 | 145 | 92 | 277 | 269 |
Residential | Average Price | $170,996 | $186,679 | $198,818 | $193,158 | | |
| | | | | | | |
Total | # Units Sold | 689 | 658 | 729 | 585 | 1411 | 1629 |
Days On Market | 55 | 54 | 56 | 61 | | |
| | | | | | | |
Condo | # Units Sold | 73 | 79 | 66 | 77 | 60 | 92 |
| Average Price | $139,361 | $166,494 | $156,375 | $170,165 | | |
Days On Market | 42 | 48 | 51 | 51 | | |
I also believe all the doom and gloom talk coming from the U.S. has some folks waiting on the sidelines for the big price plunge here. Sorry folks, I don't think that will happen in our market here. We never had the infamous "bubble" thing here, with prices rising 30 to 40% or more year over year like some western market areas did. Yes, Calgary and Edmonton are, I understand, having some price corrections but it is very unlikely to happen here. I believe that we will see a smaller (2 to 4%) year over year price increase for the next two years maybe 3, but my opinion is, we will not see across the board drops.
We in Canada have different laws governing lending and mortgages. We will not see the credit fiasco in Canada that caused many of the problems in the U.S. market
Some markets rely heavily on the strength of the manufacturing sector. The high Canadian dollar has certainly hurt that sector of our economy. The Windsor, Ontario market and several others that rely on manufacturing will surely see some downturn in number of units sold. Here in Kingston, we are not very reliant on manufacturing, so I see little effect, on the market here from that. I believe that our tourism in Kingston will certainly take a hit this year as far fewer Americans will get in their cars and head north this year - but once again, that will not have a great impact on the overall real estate market.
Last, but not least, is the fact that Kingston is second only to Victoria, British Columbia as a retirement destination. According to the 2006 Census data, more than one-third of Kingston, Ontario residents are age 50 or older and Kingston has one of the highest percentages of retirees in the country, second only to Victoria, British Columbia - amazing. And when you look at the price of accommodation in Victoria, we have bargain prices here. So overall - some slowdown, smaller price increases, but still, I believe, a strong balanced market. The most significant number is likely the number of active listings or what we call inventory. The inventory is up 17% over the same period last year. For buyers, that means a great time to buy with low mortgage rates and lots of choice. Sellers, be prepared to price your home competitively and be patient because homes will likely be on the market for a little longer this year.
If you look at the average price to date and compare that to the average price for the same period last year, it looks like a substantial increase. However, if you compare the average price so far this year to the average price from all of 2007, 2-storey homes are down slightly (less than 1%), bungalows up about 2% and condos up about 3 ½ percent - about what I expect for the year.
If anyone has any questions about our unique VIP Buyer Profile Service please give me a call at my home office 613-389-4052, for those at a distance call me toll free direct at 1-866-393-5762. This hassle free service could save you thousands!
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Have a Great Day!
Regards,
Gary Moran, M.Sc.
KingstonRealtyTeam
sutton group-masters realty inc., Brokerage
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